自回归分布滞后模型检验的结果表明 ,1 84 0— 1 936年与 1 985— 1 999年外国 (商 )在华直接投资都具有挤出效应 ,前者的挤出程度远高于后者 ,且前者对官僚资本的挤出程度要远大于民族资本 ,而后者则相反。究其原因可知 ,资源寻求型和市场寻求型外国 (商 )在华直接投资是挤出效应普遍存在的外在原因 ,而外国 (商 )在华直接投资效应决定模式的转变则是挤出效应产生巨大差异的内在原因。 The results of autoregressive distribution lag model test show that foreign direct investment (FDI) in China from 1980 to 1936 and from 1985 to 1999 all have crowding-out effect, and the former is much more crowded than the latter The former squeezed bureaucratic capital much more than national capital, while the latter contrasted. The reason is that FDI and market-seeking foreign direct investment (FDI) in China is the external reason for the crowding-out effect, while the shift in the decision-making model for foreign direct investment (FDI) in China is the crowding-out effect The inner causes of a huge difference.