在经历2009年出乎意料的、奇迹般的“井喷车市”后,大多数人对2010年车市有很高的预期。各汽车企业纷纷扩大产能,调高产量。第1季度较高的产销量又进一步推波助澜,认为2010年车市又是一个“井喷年”(有人预测年产1700万～1750万辆);然而进入第2季度,车市3个月环比下降,引起动荡不安,又悲观起来(有人把年产量重估为1500万辆或更低)。笔者认为,对于车市2010年既非“井喷年”也非“疲软年”。 After experiencing the surprising, miraculous “blowout car market” in 2009, most people have high expectations for 2010 auto market. The auto companies have to expand production capacity, increase production. In the first quarter, the higher production and sales volume further boosted the auto market in 2010 as another “blowout year” (some predicted an annual output of 17 million to 17.5 million vehicles). However, in the second quarter, the auto market slumped in 3 months , Causing turmoil and pessimism (some have re-estimated annual production to 15 million vehicles or less). The author believes that the automobile market in 2010 is neither “blowout year ” nor “” weak year ".