论文部分内容阅读
中国目前处于快速工业化与城市化的发展阶段,城市空间扩张是城市化过程的重要标识,如何推动城市化发展?工业兴城主张是否具有可持续性?传统理论认为工业化促进了城市扩张,本文运用284个城市1990—2012年的面板数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明:1工业化发展对于城市扩张的作用受不同工业化发展阶段影响,东部地区工业化发展程度较高,工业化对于城市扩张的作用呈下降趋势,中西部地区工业化发展仍能促进城市规模扩张;2工业化与城市规模呈倒U型分布,呈现先升后降的发展趋势,存在显著的门槛效应,工业化对于城市规模扩张的作用随着工业发展到一定阶段呈现拐点,东部地区已达到拐点呈下降趋势,而中西部仍呈上升趋势;3从城市规模来看,小城市工业化对于城市规模的促进作用并不显著,中等城市和大城市的工业化发展有效地促进了城市规模扩张,而特大城市由于工业发展程度已达到一定水平,第三产业发展迅速,工业化对于城市规模扩张的作用呈下降趋势;4工业化对于城市规模扩张的影响系数随着分位数的提高逐渐增大,且在不同分位上影响均显著。工业兴城城市化主张需要甄别区域和城市发展的不同阶段及驱动性特征,厘清城市化发展路径选择,谨防城市化动因扭曲与制造业产能过剩、粮食安全等城市化发展陷阱,实现城市化、农业发展、工业化协调发展,实施区域差异城市化政策,以发展大中城市为重点,实施东部城镇化,西部城市化战略主张。
At present, China is in the stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization. The expansion of urban space is an important indicator of urbanization and how to promote urbanization? Is industrial sustainability proposition sustainable? According to traditional theory, industrialization has promoted urban expansion. The results show that: (1) The effect of industrialization on urban expansion is influenced by different stages of industrialization. The degree of industrialization in the eastern region is high, and the effect of industrialization on urban expansion is on the decline. , The industrialization in the central and western regions can still promote the expansion of the city scale; 2 the industrialization and the urban scale are inverted U-shaped, showing the trend of rising first and then decreasing, with significant threshold effect; the role of industrialization in the expansion of urban scale The turning point in the eastern region has reached a downward trend, while that in the central and western regions is still on the upward trend. 3 From the perspective of city size, the promotion effect of industrialization of small cities on city size is not significant. The industrialization of medium-sized cities and big cities Development has effectively promoted the expansion of urban scale, but rather large Since the degree of industrial development in the city has reached a certain level, the rapid development of the tertiary industry and the role of industrialization in urban expansion have shown a downward trend. 4 The influence coefficient of industrialization on the expansion of urban scale gradually increases with the increase of quantile, Sub-quantile impact are significant. The urbanization of industrial Xingcheng needs to identify the different stages and driving characteristics of regional and urban development, make clear the choice of urbanization development path, guard against distorted urbanization drivers and the traps of urbanization such as overcapacity in manufacturing and food security, The coordinated development of agriculture, industrialization and the implementation of regional differences in urbanization policies will focus on the development of large and medium-sized cities and will implement the strategy of urbanization in the east and urbanization in the west.