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人民币升值与加息两种压力叠加,将可能对我国资本市场产生市场整体效应、市场结构效应、行业板块效应。我国的外汇市场、货币市场与证券市场三者之间存在较强的关联性,人民币加息与升值的双重压力所产生的资金效应和股票资产的价值重估效应,将共同推动中国资本市场总体价格水平的上升,促进中国资本市场的发展;同时,鉴于我国目前人民币的利率弹性和汇率弹性较低,加之货币加息与升值的反向作用,预计人民币升值对资本市场的效应将有所弱化。但是,由于人民币升值预期所形成的国际热钱内流趋势不可忽视,我们应对由此可能形成的经济泡沫保持高度的警惕。
The superposition of RMB appreciation and interest rate hike will probably result in the overall market effect, market structure effect and industry sector effect on China’s capital market. China’s foreign exchange market, the money market and the stock market have a strong correlation between the three. The capital effect arising from the double pressure of RMB interest rate hike and appreciation and the revaluation effect of stock assets will jointly promote the overall capital market in China At the same time, given the low elasticity of RMB interest rate and exchange rate elasticity in China and the reverse effect of interest rate hike and appreciation, the effect of RMB appreciation on capital market is expected to be weakened . However, due to the trend of the international hot money inflow resulting from the anticipated appreciation of the renminbi, we should maintain a high degree of vigilance against the economic bubble that may form.