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移动终端具有生命周期短、销售量波动性大、销售预测困难等显著特征。传统销售预测方法不能满足市场目前对于移动终端的预测需求。该研究以国内某销售移动终端设备的企业现实销售数据为基础,参考国内外生命周期建模方法,结合多种预测分析技术,利用经Bass扩散模型改进后的适用于短生命周期的s-bass建模方法对移动终端设备销售数据进行短生命周期建模。最后,数据测试验证了短生命周期建模方法的有效性,并为短生命周期产品的销售预测提供理论依据。
Mobile terminals have significant features such as short life cycle, large sales volume volatility and difficult sales forecast. The traditional sales forecasting method can not meet the market’s current forecast demand for mobile terminals. Based on the actual sales data of a domestic mobile terminal device, this study refers to the domestic and international life cycle modeling methods, combined with a variety of predictive analysis techniques, using the improved s-bass for the short life cycle Modeling Method Short life cycle modeling of mobile device sales data. Finally, the data test verifies the effectiveness of short lifecycle modeling methods and provides a theoretical basis for the sales forecast of short lifecycle products.