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本文对改革开放30年来三个阶段的经济增长动力进行了研究,认为投资波动是造成经济波动的主要原因,指出,在不同阶段,引起投资波动的原因存在差别,80年代和90年代主要是市场主体和地方政府与宏观调控政策之间的博弈造成的。进入新世纪后,技术进步和外部冲击对我国经济周期的影响更加显著。总体来看,前两阶段更多表现为需求因素影响下的经济波动,第三阶段则更接近由供给因素造成的真实周期。
This paper studies the economic growth momentum in the three stages of reform and opening up in the past 30 years and holds that investment volatility is the main reason for economic fluctuations. It points out that there are differences in the causes of investment volatility in different stages, mainly in the 1980s and 1990s The game between the main body and local governments and macro-control policies caused. After entering the new century, the impact of technological progress and external shock on China’s economic cycle is even more pronounced. In general, the first two stages are more manifested as economic fluctuations under the influence of demand factors and the third stage is closer to the real cycles caused by supply factors.