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目的构建脑血管病个体健康危险度评价模型,预测个体发生脑血管病的危险。方法通过网络检索维普、万方、CNKI数据库1980到2012年公开发表的脑血管病相关危险因素病例对照研究论文,经筛选后纳入Review manager 5软件进行汇总,通过Meta分析获取脑血管病相关危险因素合并OR值,以此为依据建立评价模型生成危险分值转换表,预测发病风险。结果本研究搜集符合要求的文献81篇,涉及生活行为方式、健康状况共计12个风险因素。针对不同年龄、性别建立脑血管病风险评价模型,并举例说明针对个体如何预测发病风险。结论本评价模型能够依据个人存在的风险因素对脑血管病发病风险进行预测,并能评价改变风险因素后的健康效果,为脑血管病的早期预防提供了有效途径。
Objective To construct an individual health risk assessment model of cerebrovascular disease and predict the risk of developing cerebrovascular disease in individuals. Methods A case-control study of the risk factors of cerebrovascular disease published by VIP, Wanfang, CNKI database from 1980 to 2012 was searched through the Internet. After screening, it was included in the Review manager 5 software, and the risk factors of cerebrovascular disease OR value is combined to establish an evaluation model based on which a risk score conversion table is generated to predict the risk of the disease. Results This study collected 81 articles that meet the requirements and involved 12 lifestyles and health conditions. For different age and gender to establish risk assessment model of cerebrovascular disease, and an example of how to predict the risk for the individual. Conclusion This evaluation model can predict the risk of cerebrovascular disease according to the individual risk factors and evaluate the health effects after the change of risk factors, which provides an effective way for the early prevention of cerebrovascular disease.