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用电需求与经济结构密切相关。从区域发展的整体视角出发,建立了考虑空间效应的中国用电需求实证分析模型;基于1999-2014年中国30个省区电力消费空间面板数据,分析了产业结构、区域结构、分配结构、能源结构等经济结构性因素对用电需求的影响及其空间效应;结合“从具体到一般”和“从一般到具体”两种方法进行空间效应设置、检验和优选,并对固定效应模型的偏误进行了校正;在全国整体分析的基础上,分东部、中部和西部对解释变量的直接效应和间接效应进行对比分析;实证分析表明,经济结构对于用电需求具有重要影响,中国省域用电需求在样本期内具有显著的空间交互效应,解释变量变化会导致样本省区及其邻近省区用电需求发生变化,且不同区域内解释变量直接效应和间接效应明显不同;对中国“十三五”用电需求变化趋势进行了分析并为区域规划给出建议。
The demand for electricity is closely related to the economic structure. From the overall perspective of regional development, we establish an empirical model of China’s electricity demand considering spatial effects. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1999 to 2014, we analyze the industrial structure, regional structure, distribution structure, energy Structure and other economic structural factors on the impact of electricity demand and its spatial effect; combined with “from specific to general” and “from general to specific” two methods of spatial effects set, test and optimization, and fixed Based on the overall analysis of the whole country, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the direct and indirect effects of explanatory variables in the eastern, central and western regions. The empirical analysis shows that the economic structure has an important impact on the demand for electricity, The provincial electricity demand in China has a significant spatial interaction effect during the sample period. The change of explanatory variables will lead to the change of electricity demand in the sample provinces and their neighboring provinces, and the direct and indirect effects of the explanatory variables in different regions are obviously different. The trend of electricity demand in China during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period is analyzed and suggestions for regional planning are given.