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以2003—2015年茯苓出口海关统计数据为基础,通过灰色关联度分析法研究了茯苓对外贸易的状况。结果表明:茯苓出口量、出口额及出口价格呈波动上升趋势;其产新前1个月,月出口价格出现峰值的可能性较高;产新后3个月,月出口量及月出口额易出现峰值;2月茯苓出口市场表现为疲软状态;通过灰色关联度模型分析表明,茯苓出口额受内地市场茯苓价格影响较大,茯苓出口价格与出口额关联度较大。因此,就茯苓对外贸易而言,其市场稳定,前景较好,应重视汇率、季节性对茯苓贸易的影响,做好茯苓对外贸易整体布局,深入挖掘国内外市场潜力。
Based on the statistics of the export customs of Poria cocos from 2003 to 2015, the status of foreign trade of Poria cocos by gray relational analysis was studied. The results showed that the export volume, export value and export price of Poria cocos were fluctuantly increasing. The export price of Poria cocos was more likely to peak in the first month before its production, and the monthly export volume and monthly export value According to the gray relational degree model, the export value of Poria cocos was greatly influenced by the price of Poria cocos in the mainland market, and the correlation between the export price and the export volume of Poria cocos was relatively large. Therefore, in terms of foreign trade of Poria, the market is stable and the prospect is good. We should pay attention to the influence of exchange rate and seasonality on the trade of Poria cocos, do a good job in the overall layout of foreign trade of Poria cocos and tap the potential of domestic and foreign markets.