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反向抵押贷款借款人的生命健康状况决定了其贷款合同的期限,进而影响开办机构的效益,借款人未来寿命超过预期则开办金融机构将会发生亏损,因此,必须准确预估借款人群的死亡率。针对这一问题建立了Lee-Carter死亡率预测模型,并根据中国生命表统计数据少的问题,对其进行改进,模型预测结果与实际发展规律高度吻合。另外,利用中国寿险业经验生命表和预测生命表分别测算了借款人可获得贷款数额,发现基于传统静态生命表假设的计算结果会出现严重误差,易造成贷款机构损失。最后针对开办此业务的金融机构如何应对长寿风险提出政策建议。
The life and health condition of the reverse mortgage loan borrower determines the duration of its loan contract, which in turn affects the profitability of the start-up agency. If the borrower’s future life expectancy exceeds expectations, the financial institution will suffer a loss. Therefore, the death toll of the borrower must be accurately estimated rate. In order to solve this problem, a Lee-Carter mortality prediction model is established. According to the statistics of Chinese life table, it is improved, and the model prediction results are in good agreement with the actual development rules. In addition, the life loan life expectancy and life expectancy of life insurance companies in China are respectively used to calculate the amount of loans available to borrowers. It is found that there are serious errors in the calculation results based on the traditional static life table assumptions, which can easily lead to the loss of lending institutions. Finally, we propose policy recommendations on how to deal with the longevity risks of the financial institutions that start this business.