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文章重点讨论了政策干预下的汇率走势,以及预期因素作用下进口商和消费者的行为模式,在假定马歇尔—勒纳条件成立,汇率变动完全传递给贸易品价格的条件下,研究了汇率变动和贸易余额的关系。认为在政策干预和汇率走势形成稳定预期的条件下,汇率升值不但不能减少贸易逆差,反而扩大贸易逆差,反之反是。文章通过一系列实证检验和对比研究,发现上述作用机制在2005年7月至2008年6月的中美贸易中能够较好地成立。
The paper focuses on the exchange rate movements under the policy intervention and the behavior patterns of importers and consumers under the anticipatory factors. Under the assumption that the conditions of Marshall - Lerner are established and the exchange rate changes are completely passed on to the price of tradable goods, the paper studies the exchange rate movements Relationship with trade balance. He believes that under the conditions of stable policy intervention and exchange rate movements, the appreciation of the exchange rate will not only reduce the trade deficit but increase the trade deficit, on the contrary. Through a series of empirical tests and comparative studies, the article finds that the above mechanism can be well established in the Sino-U.S. Trade between July 2005 and June 2008.