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本文通过误差修正模型,对1994-2007年中国对美出口决策机制进行短期动态分析得到:1994-2001年中国对美出口与美国国内物价指数(GDP deflator)存在显著关系,2002-2007年中国对美出口与美国经济增长率以及出口价格指数密切相关。通过脉冲响应分析得出,长期影响中国对美出口主要因素是美国经济增长率和出口价格指数。
In this paper, a short-term dynamic analysis of the export decision-making mechanism of China’s exports to the United States from 1994 to 2007 shows that the export of China’s exports to the United States has a significant relationship with the GDP deflator from 1994 to 2001 and China’s GDP deflator from 2002 to 2007 U.S. exports are closely related to the U.S. economic growth rate and the export price index. The impulse response analysis shows that the main factors that have long affected China’s exports to the United States are the U.S. economic growth rate and the export price index.