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近年来,随着新疆社会经济不断发展,大面积土地开发与水资源有限、粮食安全问题与种植业经济利益驱动性之间的矛盾加剧,水资源合理配置及种植业结构优化的重要性日益凸显。本文以新疆库尔勒市为例,根据其水资源开发利用特点,综合考虑经济、生态、粮食安全等因素,结合种植业发展重点,提出四个发展方案,建立水资源优化配置模型,利用数据包络分析方法进行投入产出效率评价。结果表明:高自给率低投资的种植业发展方案,既能满足一定的粮食自给率要求,又不过多增加节水灌溉投资费用,其投入产出效率最高,可视为种植业发展规划的基础方案。根据该方案,2020年种植业总面积应控制在84000hm2左右,粮食、经济作物、果园种植比例为26∶56∶18。从目前情况来讲,应通过增加粮食作物种植面积、发展果园节水灌溉、减少果园大田种植等提高粮食自给率和经济效益,同时节水灌溉改造费不应超过种植业总产值的3%,以免造成投资过剩。
In recent years, with the continuous social and economic development in Xinjiang, the land exploitation and water resources are limited in large areas, and the conflict between food security and the economic benefits of crop production aggravates. The importance of rational allocation of water resources and optimization of planting structure has become increasingly prominent . Taking Korla City in Xinjiang as an example, four development plans are put forward based on the characteristics of water resources development and utilization, economic, ecological, food security and other factors in combination with the development of planting industry. The optimal allocation model of water resources is established. Data envelopment Analysis Method Input-Output Efficiency Evaluation. The results showed that the plan of planting industry with high self-sufficiency rate and low investment could not only meet the requirements of certain self-sufficiency rate of grain but also not increase the investment cost of water-saving irrigation more, which had the highest input-output efficiency and could be regarded as the basis of planting development planning Program. According to the plan, the total planting area in 2020 should be controlled at about 84000hm2. The proportion of grain, cash crops and orchards to be planted is 26:56:18. In the current situation, the grain self-sufficiency rate and economic benefits should be increased by increasing the acreage of food crops, developing water-saving irrigation in orchards, reducing the planting of orchards in the orchards, etc. Meanwhile, the water-saving irrigation reconstruction fee should not exceed 3% of the total output value of the planting industry, To avoid over-investment.