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客观理性的经济分析表明中国经济此轮增长的源泉、动力、模式不足以支撑整个经济实现现代化。要到本世界中叶基本实现现代化,中国经济就必须实现转型,而在经济转型完成之前,中国经济增长的轨迹将出现拐点。历史经验一次次表明,没有一个经济体能一直行驶在经济发展的快车道上,中国也不会例外。只是我们不禁要问,中国本轮经济增长的拐点会在什么时候出现?将会以什么样的形式出现?中国经济在驶入拐点之后又面临怎样的前景?对此,我们怎样才能做到未雨绸缪?文章从相关的经济增长理论出发,借鉴国际发展经验,针对中国现实情况对中国经济实现经济转型提出对策和建议。
Economic analysis of objective reason shows that the source, momentum, and mode of this round of economic growth in China are not enough to support the entire economy in its modernization. To basically realize the modernization in the middle of the world, China’s economy will have to be transformed. Before the economic restructuring is completed, there will be a turning point in the trajectory of China’s economic growth. Time and again, historical experience shows that no single economy can keep driving in the fast lane of economic development. China is no exception. However, we can not but ask: When will the turning point of China’s current economic growth appear? What kind of form will it take? What are the prospects for the Chinese economy after it has entered the turning point? How can we take precautions? Based on the related theory of economic growth, the article draws on the experience of international development and proposes countermeasures and suggestions for China’s economic restructuring in the light of China’s current situation.