论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨我国手足口病发病与气象因素的关系,建立基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型。方法收集2010-2014年全国31个省市手足口病月发病率资料和当地同期气象资料;利用Spearman相关分析、Logistic回归分析筛选影响手足口病发病的气象危险因素;应用哈佛疾病风险指数模型建立预测模型;采用ROC曲线下面积评价模型优劣。结果影响手足口病高发的气象危险因素分别为月平均气温12~22℃(OR=13.922)、月平均气温大于22℃(OR=25.932)、标准大气压地区(OR=7.953)、月降水量大于100 mm(OR=1.439)及月平均湿度大于70%(OR=1.597)。根据以上气象因素建立手足口病发病风险预测模型,并绘制风险评估图,模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.810。结论气象因素对手足口病的发生、发展过程存在影响;成功建立了基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型。
Objective To explore the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in our country and to establish a risk prediction model of hand-foot-mouth disease based on meteorological factors. Methods The monthly incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and the local meteorological data of 31 provinces and cities in China during 2010-2014 were collected. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen meteorological risk factors that affected the occurrence of hand-foot-mouth disease using Spearman correlation analysis. Predict the model; use the area under the ROC curve to evaluate the pros and cons of the model. Results The meteorological risk factors affecting the HFMD were 12 ~ 22 ℃ (OR = 13.922), monthly average temperature above 22 ℃ (OR = 25.932), standard atmospheric pressure (OR = 7.953), monthly precipitation above 100 mm (OR = 1.439) and monthly average humidity greater than 70% (OR = 1.597). According to the above meteorological factors, the risk prediction model of hand, foot and mouth disease was established and the risk assessment chart was drawn. The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.810. Conclusion The meteorological factors have an impact on the occurrence and development of hand-foot-mouth disease. The risk prediction model of hand-foot-mouth disease was successfully established based on meteorological factors.