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为确定定线制水域的航行危险度,确保定线制水域的通航安全,选用组合赋权法(CWM)和未确知测度理论方法,建立航行危险度等级评价和排序模型。定义评价指标未确知测度函数,确定置信度判别准则,分别用层次分析法(AHP)、变异系数法(VCM)获得评价指标的主客观权重,运用2-范数CWM融合主客观权重信息,并利用基于多元联系数的权重一致度检验方法检验权重间的一致性。应用所提出的模型判定5个船舶定线制水域危险度等级,并对其进行排序。研究结果表明:该模型可用于解决定线制水域航行危险度评价中诸多因素的不确定性问题,并可在实际工程中推广应用。
In order to determine the navigational risk of fixed-line waters and to ensure the navigation safety of fixed-line waters, the method of combinatorial weighting (CWM) and unascertained measure theory are used to establish the rating and ranking model of navigational hazards. Define the unascertained measure function of evaluation index, and determine the criterion of confidence. Obtain the subjective and objective weights of evaluation index by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and coefficient of variation (VCM) respectively. Combine subjective and objective weights with 2-norm CWM, And the consistency between the weights is verified by using the weight consistency test method based on the multiple connection number. Apply the proposed model to determine the rankings of the five ship-to-water systems and sort them. The results show that this model can be used to solve the uncertainties of many factors in the assessment of navigational risk of fixed line waters and can be applied in practical projects.