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为了进一步开展冬小麦春季湿渍害的预测预报业务工作,利用江苏省1969-2008年60个气象站常规观测资料和冬小麦产量资料,根据场相关分析原理,将江苏省春季湿渍害3个风险区的湿渍害指数与太平洋海温资料进行相关普查,结果表明:3个风险区的小麦春季湿渍害指数和西太平洋海温均存在高相关区,主要位于Nino区和西太平洋北部海区,其相关程度随时间具有一定的变化趋势;挑选出与湿渍害指数相关的强信号海区作为预报因子,通过最优化相关处理提高预报因子相关性;经稳定性和独立性检验,创建了对应3个风险区的冬小麦湿渍害指数预测模型,所有模型均通过0.01显著性水平检验,拟合及试报结果理想,表明预测模型具有一定应用价值。
In order to further carry out the forecasting and forecasting work of spring wheat wet injury in winter wheat, the routine observation data and winter wheat yield data of 60 weather stations from 1969 to 2008 in Jiangsu Province were used. Based on the field correlation analysis principle, The results showed that there were high correlations between spring wetness index and wheat SST in the three risk areas, mainly in the Nino area and the northern part of the western Pacific Ocean The degree of correlation has a certain trend of change with time; picking out strong signal sea area associated with the wetness index as a predictor, and improving the correlation coefficient of the predictor by optimizing the relevant treatment; establishing the corresponding three Risk model. All the models tested by 0.01 significance level showed that the fitting and test results were satisfactory, indicating that the prediction model has certain application value.