国债市场在经历了两年多的牛市之后,正在经历重要的换挡时间节点,受到了广泛的关注。而国债到期收益率是国债现货和期货定价的基础,对宏观经济政策的制定也具有重要的指导作用,本文选取了长短期国债利差、一年期存款利率、CPI指数、宏观经济景气指数和上证指数等因素,综合运用格兰杰因果分析法、johansen协整检验和VECM模型对这些影响因素进行实证分析。 Treasury market after more than two years of bull market, is experiencing an important shift time node, has been widespread concern. The maturity yield of Treasury bonds is the basis of spot and futures pricing of treasury bonds and also plays an important guiding role in the formulation of macroeconomic policies. This paper selects short-term bond spreads, one-year deposit rates, CPI index, macroeconomic climate index And the Shanghai Composite Index and other factors, the comprehensive use of Granger causality analysis, johansen cointegration test and VECM model empirical analysis of these factors.