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我国房地产景气指数在连续多年逐步上升后,2004年一季度首次开始下滑,预示着国家宏观经济调整对房地产业持续健康发展的影响开始显现。研究表明:上海楼市价格近年来的快速上涨同上海经济的高速发展是成正比的,虽然涨幅偏大但总体而言是健康的。随着国家一系列宏观调控政策的出台,2004年下半年上海楼市将进入政策消化和市场盘整阶段,在此阶段上海房价将会适当调整,稳中有升。
After the gradual rise of China’s real estate prosperity index for many years in succession, the first decline in the first quarter of 2004 indicates that the impact of the national macroeconomic adjustment on the sustained and healthy development of the real estate industry has begun to show. The research shows that the rapid rise of the Shanghai property market in recent years is proportional to the rapid economic development in Shanghai. Although the increase is large, it is generally healthy. With the introduction of a series of national macro-control policies, the property market in Shanghai will enter the second phase of policy digestion and market consolidation in the second half of 2004. During this phase, housing prices in Shanghai will be appropriately adjusted and stable.