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通过对影响国际油价的主要因素进行系统分析,我们认为,2014年供需基本面和宏观经济走势将主导全年油价走势。美元汇率走强会在一定程度上打压油价,市场投机活动和地缘政治风险也都将对市场波动产生不同程度的影响。通过我们建立的定性定量相结合的油价综合分析预测系统,得到如下预测结果,2014年国际油价水平将整体下降,Brent年平均油价为104美元/桶,WTI年平均油价为95美元/桶,两者平均价差进一步缩小。
By systematically analyzing the major factors influencing international oil prices, we believe that supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic trends in 2014 will dominate the full-year oil price trend. A stronger dollar will be to a certain extent, suppress the oil prices, market speculation and geopolitical risks will also have varying degrees of market volatility. Through the qualitative and quantitative analysis of oil prices, we can get the following forecast results. In 2014, the global oil price will drop as a whole. The average annual oil price in Brent is 104 US dollars / barrel, and the WTI average annual oil price is 95 US dollars / barrel. Average spread further narrowed.