用故事命表法对常州市２５８例矽肺进行了分析和进展趋势的预测。结果表明，矽肺合并结核主要发生在矽肺病头５年，各期矽肺经１５年观察，其累积病死率Ⅰ期２２．６％，Ⅱ期３８．９％，Ⅲ期５０．３％。矽肺患者的晋期、病死亡年龄段集中在５０～５５岁，而诊断后３年内及７～１０年则是两个集中的时间段。提示：控制矽肺病的发展宜在确诊的早期。 258 cases of silicosis in Changzhou were analyzed and the trend of prediction was predicted by the life table method. The results showed that silicosis complicated with tuberculosis mainly occurred in the first 5 years of silicosis. Silicosis in all stages was observed after 15 years. The cumulative mortality was 22.6% in stage Ⅰ, 38.9% in stage Ⅱ and 50.3% in stage Ⅲ. Silicosis patients, the age of death in patients with concentrated in the 50 to 55 years old, and within 3 years after diagnosis and 7 to 10 years are two concentrated time periods. Tip: the development of control of silicosis should be early in the diagnosis.