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本文提出一种基于发电可靠性和静态安全分析的区域电网外受电能力评估方法.一方面,在保证系统可靠性的前提下,采用优化卷积法计算电网的最小外受电需求,并将之与传统蒙特卡洛模拟对比;另一方面,分析了系统电源、负荷以及网架结构,设置相应的外联络点以及静态安全约束,并通过逐步协同提高系统内负荷水平和外受电能力,求解系统最大外受电能力.以某区域电网2020年规划方案为算例进行分析,结果表明,所提优化卷积算法在计算效率上较蒙特卡洛模拟法更高;所计算的外受电的需求和规模,可以从外受电的角度论证该规划方案的合理性.“,”In this paper,an evaluation approach of transmission transfer capability is presented by considering generation reliability and static security analysis.On the one hand,the minimal transmission transfer capability is calculated by using optimized convolution method with the precondition of ensuring system reliability,and it is compared with that obtained by traditional Monte Carlo simulation.On the other hand,after analyzing system power source,load and power grid structure,relative transmission accessing nodes and static security constraints are set,and the maximum transmission transfer capability is gotten through improving system load level and transmission transfer capability step by step.By taking regional power grid that is the planning scheme in 2020 as case analysis,the result shows that proposed optimized convolution method has higher efficiency with comparison with that of Monte Carlo simulation,and the calculated demand and scale of transmission transfer capability can prove the rationality of planning scheme from transmission transfer capability point of view.