在统计分析1949～1998 年资料的基础上,研究了厄尔尼诺现象与南海季风爆发及热带风暴活动的相互关系。分析表明:厄尔尼诺现象易导致南海季风较早爆发且不利于热带风暴的活动,对进行早期南海季风的爆发时期和热带风暴的多寡预报有指示意义。 Based on the statistical analysis of the data from 1949 to 1998, the relationship between El Niño events and the onset of the South China Sea monsoon and tropical storms was studied. The analysis shows that the El Niño phenomenon can lead to the early onset of the South China Sea monsoon and is not conducive to tropical storms, indicating the occurrence of the early South China Sea monsoon onset and the tropical cyclone forecast.