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为评估广西壮族自治区台风灾害发生后可能出现的公共卫生风险,并为提前做好有针对性的卫生应急准备提供基础资料和科学依据,本研究采用文献研究、头脑风暴、Delphi专家咨询、专家评议、风险矩阵分析等方法,建立台风灾害公共卫生风险评估方法。经过风险分析,广西壮族自治区台风灾害发生后风险较高的主要公共卫生问题包括外伤、伤寒或副伤寒、霍乱、感染性腹泻、甲肝等共20种。本研究评估的广西台风灾后主要公共卫生风险与与国内外相关研究认为台风灾害最可能导致的公共卫生风险一致。本研究建立的风险评估方法有利于实现自然灾害公共卫生风险动态评估和早期预警,切实推进自然灾害卫生应急准备工作的进行。
In order to assess the public health risks that may occur after the typhoon disaster in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and to provide basic information and scientific evidences for the preparation of targeted health emergency in advance, this study adopts literature review, brainstorming, Delphi expert consultation and expert review , Risk matrix analysis and other methods to establish typhoon disaster public health risk assessment methods. After the risk analysis, major public health problems with high risks after the typhoon disaster in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region include trauma, typhoid or paratyphoid, cholera, infectious diarrhea and hepatitis A, etc. The main public health risks assessed by this study after the typhoon in Guangxi are consistent with the public health risks most likely to be caused by typhoon disasters, according to relevant studies at home and abroad. The risk assessment method established in this study is conducive to the dynamic assessment and early warning of public health risks of natural disasters and effectively promote the preparation for emergency response to natural disasters.