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介绍D-S证据理论的推理方法和组合规则。针对D-S证据理论方法不能对冲突证据进行组合的局限性,探讨适用于城市轨道交通系统型式选择问题的组合规则,给出通过基本概率赋值转移预处理后再组合的冲突证据组合方法。基于D-S证据理论的推理方法建立城市轨道交通系统型式选择决策模型,并应用文中提出的冲突证据组合方法进行求解。最后结合国内已建成轨道交通系统城市的7项指标,对济南市城市轨道交通系统型式选择进行融合决策,经检验证明该模型对城市轨道交通系统型式选择具有辅助决策作用。
Introduce the reasoning methods and combination rules of D-S evidence theory. Aiming at the limitation that D-S evidence theory method can not combine conflict evidences, this paper discusses the combination rules applicable to the type selection of urban rail transit system, and presents the combination of conflict evidences after pre-processing and transfer of basic probability assignment. Based on the reasoning method of D-S evidence theory, the model of decision-making of urban rail transit system is established, and the conflict evidence combination method proposed in this paper is used to solve the model. Finally, 7 kinds of indexes of the urban rail transit system cities in China are established to make the fusion decision of the type selection of urban rail transit system in Jinan. The results show that this model has the auxiliary decision-making function for the urban rail transit system type selection.