科技计划是政府开展公共科技活动的基本形式。随着政府财政科技投入的持续增长,考察并评估科技计划的实际效果,已成为近20年来创新研究,尤其是创新经济学与创新政策研究关注的焦点问题。增量效应与信号功能是学者们为准确认识政府科技计划的作用,减少评估的认知偏误而逐渐发展起来的两个前沿概念。回顾上述两个概念的缘起、发展、内涵与相关的实证研究发现。未来,基于中国现实的治理情境,开展基于“增量”概念的评估研究,深入分析“信号功能”的作用逻辑。 Science and technology planning is the government’s basic form of public science and technology activities. With the continuous growth of government investment in science and technology, examining and assessing the actual effect of science and technology projects has become a focus of innovation research in the past 20 years, especially in the areas of innovation economics and innovation policy research. The incremental effects and signal functions are two frontier concepts that scholars have gradually developed to accurately understand the role of government science and technology programs and to reduce cognitive bias in assessment. Review the origin, development, connotation and related empirical research findings of the above two concepts. In the future, based on the realities of governance in China, the evaluation study based on the concept of “increment” is carried out to deeply analyze the logic of the role of “signal function”.