近期研究表明,世界石油产量很可能已经达到或将达到顶峰,未来将趋于下降;世界煤炭和天然气的产量也有可能在未来二三十年越过顶峰。本文讨论从现在起至本世纪末全球能源供给和经济增长的情景。在考察了石油、天然气和煤的剩余资源以及核能、可再生能源和能源效率的发展潜力后,本文认为,即使采用比较乐观的假设,全球经济增长仍将趋于下降,并将于本世纪后期接近于停滞。 Recent studies show that the world oil production is likely to have peaked or will peak in the future will tend to decline; the world’s coal and natural gas production is also likely to peak in the next two to three decades. This article discusses the global energy supply and economic growth from now until the end of this century. After examining the remaining resources of oil, natural gas and coal and the potential for growth of nuclear, renewable and energy efficiency, the paper argues that even with the more optimistic assumption that the global economic growth will continue to decline, and will be later this century Close to stagnation.