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目的研究候气温、气压、湿度等气象因子变化对消化性溃疡发病的影响及探讨其导致消化性溃疡的发病机理。方法用2003年和2004年南宁市逐候(5 d)的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温,平均气压和平均露点温度,代入已经研究建立的南宁市候的消化性溃疡内镜检出率(DRPU)预测模型(Y侯DRPU):Y候DRPU=-9.826-0.13995Tpj-0.00568Tmax-0.24365Tmin+0.04104P+0.00342Td进行前瞻性预测南宁市候的DRPU,所得结果与南宁市实测的DRPU对照分析,按预测模型允许的平均误差率4.06%评定为准确。结果(1)2003年72个候的预测结果中与实侧值比较,基本相符为55/72候,相符率达76.39%。(2)2004年在72个侯的预测结果中与实测值比较,基本相符为52/72候,相符率达72.22%。上述2年144个侯的预测结果与实测值比较,基本相符为107/144候,相符率平均达74.31%。结论候的平均气温值、平均最高气温值、平均最低气温值、平均气压及平均露点温度等气象因子变化与消化性溃疡发病密切相关。依据前期侯的这些气象因子的变化,预测DRPU的方程对PU候发病的趋势上有较高的准确性和可靠性。寒冷气温和气压湿度剧变等急性、亚急性应激变化可导致机体肾上腺素、去甲肾上腺素、血管紧张素Ⅱ、内皮素的分泌显著增高,生长抑素分泌减少,胃泌素水平升高,5-HT增加,血浆前列腺素E2和一氧化氮水平降低,表皮生长因子水平下降,免疫功能下降,引起黏膜缺血缺氧损伤,胃酸分泌增高,幽门螺杆菌感染增加。上述多方面的综合作用,可能正是消化性溃疡冬春季发病明显增高的原因。
Objective To study the effects of climate factors such as temperature, barometric pressure and humidity on the incidence of peptic ulcer and the pathogenesis of peptic ulcer. Methods The mean temperature, average maximum air temperature, mean minimum air temperature, mean air pressure and average dew point temperature of Nanning city during 2003 and 2004 were substituted into the Nanning city’s peptic ulcer endoscopy DRPU Prediction Model (Y Hou DRPU): YDRPU = -9.826-0.13995Tpj-0.00568Tmax-0.24365Tmin + 0.04104P + 0.00342Td To prospectively predict the DRPU in Nanning City, the results obtained are in good agreement with those measured in Nanning City DRPU control analysis, according to the prediction model allows the average error rate of 4.06% assessed as accurate. Results (1) Compared with the real side-value, the predictions of the 72th place in 2003 are basically 55/72 and the consistent rate is 76.39%. (2) Compared with the measured values in 72 Hou’s predictions in 2004, the results are basically consistent with 52/72, with the corresponding rate of 72.22%. The above two years 144 Hou forecast results compared with the measured values, basically consistent 107/144, consistent rate of 74.31%. Conclusions The change of meteorological factors such as mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, mean pressure and mean dew point are closely related to the pathogenesis of peptic ulcer. Based on the changes of these meteorological factors in the early stage, it is predicted that the equation of DRPU has a higher accuracy and reliability in the trend of PU occurrence. Acute and sub-acute changes of stress such as cold air temperature and humidity of pressure and humidity can cause the secretion of epinephrine, norepinephrine, angiotensin Ⅱ and endothelin to be significantly increased, the secretion of somatostatin to be reduced, the level of gastrin to be higher, Increased 5-HT, plasma prostaglandin E2 and nitric oxide levels decreased, epidermal growth factor levels decreased, decreased immune function, causing mucosal ischemia and hypoxia injury, gastric acid secretion, Helicobacter pylori infection increased. The above-mentioned comprehensive effect may be the reason that peptic ulcer obviously increases in winter and spring.