温度是影响昆虫发育速率及其发生期的重要生态因素,发育速率与温度的关系则常用有效积温法则来表示。阐述了利用直线回归法估算发育起点温度,利用蒙特卡罗模拟估算发育上限温度以及利用正弦模型计算变温条件下有效积温的方法,并编写了Matlab计算程序。同时,还利用该模型估算了白背飞虱发育的有效积温及其相应的发育历期,结果表明该程序计算结果与田间实际情况吻合。 Temperature is an important ecological factor that affects the rate of insect development and its occurrence. The relationship between development rate and temperature is often expressed by the effective accumulated temperature law. The linear regression method is used to estimate the temperature of development starting point, Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the maximum temperature of development, and the effective temperature is calculated by using sinusoidal model. The Matlab program is compiled. At the same time, this model was also used to estimate the effective accumulated temperature and its corresponding developmental duration of whitebacked planthopper. The results show that the calculated results are in good agreement with the actual field conditions.