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传染病发生的时间分布具有短期波动、季节性升高、长期变异和一定的周期性。传染病报告制度的建立提供了疫情时间序列的原始数据,为数学模型的建立、疫情的预测奠定了基础。本文试用季节指数法对传染病的未来发展提供变动趋势、变动方向、变动程度等方面的定性和定量化的估测,为传染病的管理决策提供依据。
The time distribution of infectious diseases has short-term fluctuation, seasonal increase, long-term variation and certain periodicity. The establishment of infectious disease reporting system provided the raw data of time series of epidemic situation, which laid the foundation for the establishment of mathematical model and prediction of epidemic situation. This article tries seasonal index method to provide qualitative and quantitative estimation of the future development of infectious diseases, qualitative and quantitative assessment of the direction of change, degree of change and other aspects, and provide the basis for the management decision-making of infectious diseases.