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B2C作为跨境电子商务的主要模式之一,近几年来以迅猛的形势成长。而在2016年4月,新的跨境电商进口零售税收政策的出台,对其进口交易额将会产生较大的影响。为了探究B2C跨境电商进口交易额未来的变化趋势,文章从消费者的视角出发,运用系统动力学建模的方法,建立了B2C跨境电商平台进口交易额的影响因素模型,并运用系统仿真预测出2016~2018年进口交易额的发展趋势。系统仿真结果显示:在税收新政刚刚出台的宏观环境下,2016年上半年B2C跨境电商的进口交易额将出现小幅下降,2016年底有所回升,之后将逐渐趋于稳定。
As one of the main modes of cross-border e-commerce, B2C has been growing rapidly in recent years. In April 2016, the introduction of the new retail tax policy on imports of cross-border e-commerce will have a significant impact on the volume of its import transactions. In order to explore the future trend of the B2C cross-border e-commerce import transaction volume, the article establishes the influencing factor model of B2C cross-border e-commerce platform import transaction volume from the perspective of the consumer by using the method of system dynamics modeling, The system simulation predicts the development trend of the import transaction volume from 2016 to 2018. The system simulation results show that in the macroeconomic environment just released by the New Deal of Tax Revenue, the import transaction volume of B2C cross-border e-commerce operators will decrease slightly in the first half of 2016 and will rebound at the end of 2016, after which it will gradually stabilize.