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利用中国保监会采集的全国农业保险需求数据(2013-2014),采用有序选择模型,检验了耕地规模变化对农业保险产品形态需求的影响效应。研究结果表明,粮食种植户以自然风险管理为重,并且表现出依次对保成本、保产量、保价格和保收入的购买意愿存在排序效应。在不同种植规模下,保成本的边际需求效应最大,其次是保产量,其他两种为负。在不同区域中,粮食主产区粮食种植户更倾向于保产量意愿,粮食主销区粮食种植户则更倾向于保收入意愿。因此,建议推进农业保险制度建设,重点完善物化成本保险,分区域有重点地引导保产量和保收入,满足不同规模、不同区域粮食种植户管理风险的需要。
Using the data of national agricultural insurance demand collected by CIRC (2013-2014), we use an orderly selection model to test the effect of the change of cultivated land on the morphological needs of agricultural insurance products. The results show that grain growers take natural risk management as the most important, and show that they have the ordering effect on the purchase intention of guaranteed cost, yield, guaranteed price and guaranteed income in turn. Under different planting scales, the marginal demand effect of guaranteed cost is the largest, followed by the guaranteed yield, while the other two are negative. In different regions, the grain growers in the major grain-producing areas tended to keep the yield-to-yield and the grain growers in the grain-selling areas tended to be more willing to make their own income. Therefore, it is suggested to promote the construction of agricultural insurance system and focus on perfecting the materialized cost insurance. The sub-regions should give priority to ensuring the yield and income and meeting the needs of food growers of different sizes and risks.