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本文基于1978～2007年北京市地区生产总值与政府财力的时间序列数据,运用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验的方法,构建向量误差修正(VEC)模型,对北京市经济增长与政府财力之间的动态关系进行研究;结果表明,北京市经济增长和政府财力之间存在长期的协整关系,且两者是相互促进的,短期来看,北京市的经济增长可以促进自身和政府财力的不断增长,而政府财力的扩张除了对自身的增长有利以外,对经济增长的促进效果并不理想。因此,如何推进税制改革和优化政府支出成为当前公共财政亟待解决的问题之一。
Based on the time-series data of GDP and government financial resources of Beijing from 1978 to 2007, this paper constructs Vector Variance Correction (VEC) model by using cointegration test and Granger causality test, and analyzes the relationship between Beijing’s economic growth and government The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between economic growth and government financial resources in Beijing, and the two promote each other. In the short run, Beijing’s economic growth can promote itself and the government The continuous growth of financial resources, while the expansion of government financial resources in addition to its own growth outside, the promotion of economic growth is not ideal. Therefore, how to promote tax reform and optimize government expenditure has become one of the most urgent problems to be solved in public finance.