哪个主要经济体最有可能让今年的希望落空,甚或造成一场大到足以阻断全球经济复苏势头的金融危机?人们通常怀疑是中国和南欧。但在我看来,肇祸者最有可能是日本。如今,尽管日本并未引起太多关注,但它仍是世界第三大经济体,其国内生产总值相当于法国、意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙的总和。日本的工业仍然是美国、欧洲和韩国制造商的主要竞争对手,其地区影响力仍足以如1997年那样引发波及整个亚洲的金融危机。更糟糕的是,日本的政府债券市场正 Which major economy is most likely to disappoint this year’s hopes or even create a financial crisis that is large enough to block the global economic recovery? People often suspect China and southern Europe. But in my opinion, the perpetrator is most likely Japan. Today, Japan, though not drawing much attention, is still the world’s third-largest economy with a gross domestic product equivalent to the sum of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Japan’s industry continues to be the main competitor for manufacturers in the United States, Europe and South Korea and its regional influence is still sufficient to trigger the financial crisis affecting Asia as it did in 1997. To make matters worse, Japan’s government bond market is positive