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本文首先回顾了过去中国经济发展取得成功的原因,然后分析了人口年龄结构转变所起到的作用,继而讨论了人口年龄结构转变之后,中国依靠什么实现经济增长的问题。本文认为,过去中国人口年轻化为中国经济增长提供了助力,但作用非常微小,因此,在2010年人口年龄结构转变之后,中国经济并未因此受到大的影响。中国所面临的收入分配不公加大,国际收支失衡,环境约束日益强烈的现实,是转变经济增长模式的主要动因。在第三次科技革命背景下,中国应该吸收发达国家的最新经验,着力于打造能够适应第三次科技革命的经济体系。
This article first reviews the reasons for the success of China’s economic development in the past, analyzes the role played by the transition of population age structure, and then discusses the issue of China’s reliance on economic growth after the change of population age structure. This paper argues that China’s past population rejuvenation provided a boost to China’s economic growth in the past, but its effect was very small. Therefore, China’s economy has not been greatly affected after the demographic transition in 2010. The reality that China faces the problem of unfair income distribution, unbalanced international payments and increasing environmental constraints is the main reason for the shift in economic growth mode. Under the background of the third scientific and technological revolution, China should absorb the latest experience of developed countries and focus on building an economy that can adapt to the third scientific and technological revolution.