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基于系统动力学方法构建耦合情绪因素的群体性突发事件的仿真模型,探讨不同情绪扰动下群体性突发事件参与者的行为演化规律。针对传统Deffaunt模型的缺点进行了改进,建立了反映群体性突发事件参与者心理活动的情绪感染模型;对群体性突发事件的系统要素、要素因果关系和反馈结构进行了系统分析,构建了耦合情绪因素的群体性突发事件的系统动力学模型;最后,以“9.15保钓”游行事件为例,对不同情绪作用下群体性突发事件参与者的行为演化进行了仿真分析。研究发现,参与者的悲观情绪和乐观情绪对群体性突发事件的影响存在着差异性,乐观情绪比较宽容,有助于缓解群体性突发事件的蔓延,悲观情绪是个体化的情绪发泄,容易走极端,导致参与者采取较为激进的手段,造成的损失及社会影响较大。
Based on the system dynamics method, a simulation model of group emergencies with coupled emotion factors is constructed to investigate the behavior evolution of group emergencies under different emotional disturbances. Aiming at the shortcomings of the traditional Deffaunt model, the model of emotion infection reflecting the mental activity of group emergency participants was established. The systematic elements, causal factors and feedback structures of group emergency were systematically analyzed and constructed Finally, taking the “9.15 Baotou” parade as an example, this paper simulates the behavior evolution of group emergency participants under different emotions. The study found that participants’ pessimistic mood and optimism have different impacts on mass emergencies. Optimism is more tolerant and helps to ease the spread of group emergencies. Pessimism is individualized emotional vent, Easy to go to extremes, leading to more aggressive measures by participants, resulting in greater losses and social impacts.