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关于政府债务的研究目前国内学术界较为深入,但对于政府债务的重要领域——政府或有负债的研究却处于研究的初期阶段,对于政府或有负债的形成机理、计量等问题尚无统一认识。虽然政府或有负债只有在未来或有事件发生后才会变为实际负债,具有加大的不确定性。但或有负债一旦发生,其对财政产生的影响和引致的风险是不容忽视的。在现实财政运行中,由于政府或有负债具有较大的隐蔽性和不确定性,往往不被政府所重视。本文在借鉴国际上关于政府或有负债相关理论及研究的基础上,结合中国国情,就如何规避和防范政府或有负债风险提出了相应的政策建议。
At present, the research on government debt is more in-depth in academia in China. However, the study of government contingent liability, which is an important area of government debt, is still in the initial stage of research. There is no unified understanding of the formation mechanism and measurement of contingent liabilities. . Although government contingent liabilities become actual liabilities only in the future or in the event of an event, there is greater uncertainty. However, once a contingent liability occurs, its impact on finance and the risks it causes can not be ignored. In the real financial operation, due to the greater concealment and uncertainty of the contingent liabilities of the government, it is often not taken seriously by the government. Based on the theories and researches on the contingent liabilities of government in the world, this paper, based on China’s national conditions, puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on how to avoid and prevent the government’s contingent liability risk.