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利用颍河上游白沙水库以上区域内历史降水、蒸发、流量、水库蓄变量和龙岗电厂引水量资料,采用线性回归、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检测等方法,对各系列资料进行分析。结果表明区域内降水量无明显变化趋势,蒸发量和径流量呈显著下降趋势,主要是在20世纪80年代末期发生突变。其变化原因一方面是气候变化,另一方面主要受人类活动影响,蒸发量减少有可能是因经济发展、环境变化,造成太阳辐射减少所致,径流量减少主要是人类对水资源的过度开发所致。
Using the data of historical precipitation, evaporation, flux, reservoir storage and water diversion in Longgang Power Station above the Baisha reservoir in the upper reaches of the Ying River, the series of data were analyzed using linear regression, moving average, Mann-Kendall trend test and mutation detection . The results show that there is no obvious trend of precipitation in the region, and evaporation and runoff show a significant downward trend, mainly in the late 1980s mutation. The reason for this change is that on the one hand, climate change and the other is mainly affected by human activities. The decrease of evaporation may be caused by the decrease of solar radiation due to economic development and environmental change, and the decrease of runoff is mainly caused by human over-exploitation of water resources Due.