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本文采用经验模态分解(EMD)方法,对西部12省区1952-2009年经济差距的发展动态进行多尺度分析,并从三次产业发展的角度剖析经济差距波动的生成机制。研究结果表明,西部省区经济差距发展的阶段性特征十分显著:在整个样本研究期间呈现出明显的“N;;型曲线特征,而上世纪70年代以来则表现为”U“型曲线;区域经济差距的波动分别以准周期约为60年的长期趋势、准周期约为25年的中期尺度分量和9.5年的短期尺度分量为主,近期区域经济差距呈扩大趋势。三次产业的地区不平衡发展是导致经济差距波动的重要动因。据此文章从产业驱动、区域协作和宏观调控等方面提出了促进区域经济协调发展的政策建议。
In this paper, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is used to analyze the development dynamics of the economic disparity in the western provinces and autonomous regions from 1952 to 2009 and to analyze the generation mechanism of the economic disparity from the perspective of three industrial development. The results show that the stage characteristics of economic disparity development in western provinces and autonomous regions are quite significant: the curve characteristic of ”N ;; type is obvious during the entire sample study period, and the“ U ”type curve appears since the 1970s Curve; the fluctuation of regional economic disparity is mainly the long-term trend of quasi-cycle of about 60 years, the mid-term of about 25 years of quasi-cycle and the short-term scale of 9.5 years. The regional economic gap has widened in recent years. The unbalanced development in the region is the main reason that causes the economic gap to fluctuate.Therefore, the article puts forward the policy suggestion of promoting the coordinated development of regional economy from the aspects of industry-driven, regional cooperation and macro-control.