经济成长和汇率变动显著影响一国的房地产行业,如果将经济成长分为高速期、平稳期和成熟期,则通常在经济高速增长期房地产也将经历快速扩张,在经济增速区间变换时,房地产的波动尤其剧烈。本币汇率波动往往和一国的经济增速和发展战略相关,通常在汇率升值期,房地产也因巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应而呈价格上升趋势;在汇率贬值时则容易出现房地产泡沫的破裂。在进行经济增长、汇率和房地产的国际比较之后,我们通过观察中国经济增速调整情况和人民币汇率迫近均衡汇率的程度,而预判中国房地产可能处于从高位平台向下行趋势的初始点,这需要我们对经济增长政策、汇率政策和房地产政策进行适应性调整。 Economic growth and exchange rate changes significantly affect a country’s real estate industry, if the economic growth is divided into high-speed, stable and mature period, usually in the period of rapid economic growth real estate will also experience rapid expansion of economic growth in the range of change, Real estate is particularly volatile. The volatility of domestic currency exchange rates is often related to the economic growth and development strategy of a country. Usually during the appreciation period of the exchange rate, the real estate prices are also rising due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. In the case of a devaluation of the exchange rate, the real estate bubble is prone to rupture . After looking at the international comparison of economic growth, exchange rate and real estate, we can predict that China’s real estate may be at an initial stage from a high platform to a downside trend by observing the extent to which China’s economic growth adjustment and the renminbi exchange rate are approaching an equilibrium exchange rate. This requires We adapt economic growth policies, exchange rate policies and real estate policies.