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首先用probit模型对林农参与集体林区林权制度改革的激励因素进行了探讨,之后应用“双重差分模型”(DID)和“处理效应”(TE)方法深入分析了林权制度改革对木材供给行为的影响。研究结果证实,由于赋予林农更加完全和稳定的林地经营权和收益权,林权改革显著增加了木材的采伐量,对木材市场的供给起到了积极的促进作用,但对于改革前后产权制度变化不明显的竹林则不存在显著影响,同时提出要进一步分析林权改革给林农福利和森林资源带来的影响,还需更加长期的观察和研究。
Firstly, the probit model was used to discuss the incentive factors for forest farmers to participate in the reform of the forest tenure system. Afterwards, the author used the “Double Difference Model” (DID) and the “Treatment Effect” (TE) The Impact of Reform on Wood Supply Behavior. The results of the study confirm that the forest tenure reform has significantly increased the quantity of timber harvested and played a positive role in promoting the supply of timber markets due to the more complete and stable forestry management rights and income rights granted to forest farmers. However, the changes in the property system before and after the reform do not change There is no obvious impact on the obvious bamboo forest. At the same time, it is proposed that further analysis of the impact of forest rights reform on forest farmers’ welfare and forest resources needs more long-term observation and research.