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随着中国经济金融的日益开放,中国国家综合负债的规模与结构在动态变化:一方面,国家综合负债的某些旧因素(如银行不良资产)的存在形式发生了变化,另一方面,国家综合负债的一些新因素(社保基金缺口、巴塞尔协议的顺周期影响和汇率波动导致的外汇资产损失)开始显现。从开放视角考察,中国的国家综合负债风险形势仍较为严峻。在政府承担社会性支出的基础上,更多地重视和运用市场化分担方式是化解和防范国家综合负债风险的基本途径,保持经济持续稳定增长是应对国家综合负债风险的根本保障。
With the increasing opening up of China’s economy and finance, the scale and structure of China’s comprehensive national debt have been changing dynamically: on the one hand, the existing forms of certain old factors (such as bank non-performing assets) in the national comprehensive liability have changed. On the other hand, Some of the new factors in consolidated liabilities (shortfalls in the social security fund, the pro-cyclical effects of the Basel Accords and the loss of foreign exchange assets caused by exchange rate fluctuations) began to emerge. From an open perspective, China’s overall national debt risk situation is still grim. On the basis of the government’s commitment to social expenditures, attaching more importance to and applying the market-based share-sharing approach is the basic way to resolve and prevent the country’s comprehensive liability risk. Maintaining sustained and steady economic growth is the fundamental guarantee to deal with the country’s overall liability risk.