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文章以宏观经济学为理论基础,采用误差修正模型、向量自回归模型等经济计量的方法,通过对包括货币市场、股票市场和外汇市场的大量的国内外数据的考察,估计了我国宏观经济中的过剩资本,大约在60000亿元的水平,其主要原因是货币供给过多,它是导致2007年我国股票市场“牛市”的主要原因;文章还从其他方面对股市上涨做了分析并讨论了外汇市场与股票市场的相互影响.
Based on macroeconomics, the essay adopts the methods of econometrics such as error correction model and vector autoregressive model to estimate the macroeconomy in our country through a large amount of domestic and foreign data including the money market, the stock market and the foreign exchange market Of excess capital, at a level of about 600 billion yuan, mainly due to excessive money supply, which is the main reason leading to the “bull market” in China’s stock market in 2007. The article also analyzes other aspects of the stock market rally Discuss the interaction between the foreign exchange market and the stock market.