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经济开放条件下,一国经济周期是否具有国际趋同性,对于该国经济政策的制定与实施具有重要影响。为检验中国经济周期是否具有国际趋同性,本文构建了周期自回归模型,并选取中国、美国、英国和日本1996年1季度至2012年1季度的GDP数据,以及1996年1月至2012年5月的CPI数据进行实证检验,其主要结论是:无论是GDP增长率还是CPI增长率的变动趋势所表征的中国经济周期,与世界主要发达国家的经济周期并不相同,既不像美国和日本那样变换频率较高,状态转换频繁,也不像英国那样变换频率较低,状态转换缓慢,中国经济周期不具有国际趋同性。这一研究结论能够为中国制定符合自身发展的经济政策和推动国民经济的可持续增长提供重要依据。
Under the condition of economic openness, whether a country’s economic cycle has international convergence has a significant impact on the formulation and implementation of the country’s economic policy. To test whether China’s economic cycle has international convergence, we construct a periodic autoregressive model and choose the GDP data of China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan in the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2012 and the data of January-January 1996 Month’s CPI data. The main conclusion is that the Chinese economic cycle, which is characterized by the change trend of GDP growth rate or CPI growth rate, is different from the economic cycles of the major developed countries in the world. Neither the United States nor Japan As a higher frequency of transformation, frequent state transitions, and less frequent transitions, slower transition of states, and less convergence of international cycles in China’s economy. This research conclusion can provide an important basis for China to formulate its own economic policies in line with its own development and to promote the sustainable growth of the national economy.