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利用1950—2010年鲁中山区的地质灾害资料,对61a来鲁中山区地质灾害的气候特征进行了分析。结果表明,(1)鲁中山区发生地质灾害主要集中在7月中旬至8月中旬,其中7月中旬出现频数最高,是发生地质灾害的主要旬份,鲁中山区地质灾害主要以暴雨型地质灾害为主;(2)鲁中山区出现泥石流、滑坡多发区在鲁中山区南部和西部一带,其中尤以南部为最多,鲁中山区的泥石流滑坡在6—8月有逐月向北推进的趋势;(3)鲁中山区发生地质灾害的年代际变化明显,20世纪60年代和90年代为地质灾害多发生期,80年代和50年代为地质灾害少发生期,近61a来鲁中山区存在显著的10—15a的年代际尺度和3—6a年际尺度的周期变化;(4)鲁中山区中南部在大暴雨情况下发生地质灾害的可能性大,西南部、中东部在大雨以上情况下发生地质灾害的可能性大。降水时间、空间分布与地质灾害关系密切,发生地质灾害日不同雨量等级与前期降水条件的相关性较大。
Based on the data of geological disasters in Luxi mountain area from 1950 to 2010, the climate characteristics of geological disasters in Lushan mountain area were analyzed in 61a. The results show that: (1) geological disasters in Lushan Mountain Area are mainly concentrated in mid-July to mid-August, of which the highest frequency occurs in mid-July, which is the main ten-day occurrence of geological disasters. The geological disasters in Lushan Mountain mainly take the heavy rain-type geological (2) Debris flow occurs in Luzhong Mountainous Area. The landslide prone area is in the south and west of Lushan Mountain, especially in the south. Debris landslide in Luzhong Mountain Area moves northward from June to August (3) The interdecadal variation of geological disasters occurred obviously in Luzhong Mountainous Area. During 1960s and 1990s, geological disasters occurred frequently. In the 1980s and 1950s, geological disasters were less likely to occur. In the recent 61 years, Luzhongshan area existed Significant decadal scale of 10-15a and periodic variation of 3-6a interannual scale; (4) the possibility of geological disasters occurred in the middle and southern part of Luzhong Mountain in case of heavy rainfall; in the case of heavy rainfall in the southwest and the middle east, The possibility of geological disasters is high. Precipitation time and spatial distribution are closely related to geological disasters, and the correlation between the different rainfall levels on geological disasters and pre-precipitation conditions is relatively large.