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为合理评价地质灾害危险程度,考虑待评物元自身界限的模糊性,引入非对称贴近度函数,建立地质灾害危险性评价的改进可拓模型。以四川省枕头坝枢纽区地质灾害为研究对象,构建包括地质条件、地形地貌、水文气象、人为因素和历史灾害规模5项一级指标及11项二级指标的危险性评价指标体系;划分地质灾害危险性等级,厘定危险性评价因子基准值;基于物元分析理论,归一化处理经典域物元和待评物元;引入变权理论,确定各级指标权重,用非对称贴近度代替最大隶属度,以最大限度地融合待评物元的模糊信息;建立多级可拓评价模型,测算枕头坝枢纽区地质灾害危险性等级,并对其进行指标敏感性分析。结果表明,枢纽区地质灾害危险性等级为中等,该结果基本上符合工程实际。
In order to reasonably evaluate the degree of danger of geological disasters and consider the fuzziness of the boundary of the object to be evaluated, an asymmetric closeness function is introduced to establish an improved extension model of geological disaster risk assessment. Taking the geological hazards of P pillow dam in Sichuan Province as the research object, this paper constructs a risk assessment index system which includes five first-grade indexes and eleven second-level indexes of geological conditions, topography, hydro-meteorology, human factors and historical disaster scale. Disaster risk level, determine the risk assessment factor baseline value; Based on the matter element analysis theory, normalized the classical domain matter element and the matter-to-be-evaluated element; Introduces the variable weight theory to determine the weight of the indicators at all levels, instead of the asymmetric closeness The maximum degree of membership, in order to maximize the integration of fuzzy information to be evaluated Wu Yuan; to establish a multi-level extension evaluation model to calculate the level of geological disasters risk hazard pillow pillow dam, and the index sensitivity analysis. The results show that the hazard level of geological disasters in the hub area is medium, and the result is basically in line with the actual project.