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供应链风险管理是现代企业管理的重要对象,其核心要求是管理者对于供应链风险要有精确的衡量。现行的衡量方法主要有定性的主观分析法、定量计算的概率分析法、定性定量模糊评价法等。尝试了一种基于多级模糊评价法的供应链风险衡量方法,在将供应链风险因素进行分级后,不同于专家综合评价法,采用失效模式效应与严重度分析法(FEMCA)中的风险优先数来分析风险大小,以此设置各级风险权重,使其设置更接近实际情况,并用多级模糊综合评价法对供应链总体风险值以及各级风险因素的风险值进行了定量计算。该方法为供应链闭环风险控制调整策略提供了具体的分析基础,具有较强的实用价值。
Supply chain risk management is an important object of modern business management, the core requirement is that managers should have an accurate measurement of supply chain risk. The current measurement methods are mainly qualitative subjective analysis, quantitative analysis of probability analysis, qualitative and quantitative fuzzy evaluation method. A method of supply chain risk measurement based on multi-level fuzzy evaluation is tried. After the supply chain risk factors are graded, different from the expert comprehensive evaluation method, the risk priority in FEMCA is adopted We can set the risk weights at all levels so that the setting is closer to the actual situation. The multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to quantitatively calculate the overall risk value of the supply chain and the risk factors of various risk factors. The method provides a concrete analysis basis for the adjustment strategy of closed-loop risk control in supply chain, and has strong practical value.