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在当今技术变革加速的时代,一些企业尽管拥有强大的研发实力和主流市场的领导者地位,然而由于对技术发展趋势判断错误或者忽视新技术的市场潜力,一再错失重要发展机遇的情况时有发生。在此背景下,企业如能预见新的技术范式并识别、培育出突破性技术,则能成为新范式的掌舵者、行业的领导者。目前,已有的、基于线性思维的技术预测/预见方法尚难以解决包含高不确定性、复杂性的技术范式转换问题。文章认为,社会网络从一个网络的规模、密度、资源等角度,通过数据挖掘等工具和实证研究方法刻画范式转换的特征和演化路径,从而可能寻找到技术范式转换预见的途径。
In an era of accelerating technological change, some companies, despite their strong R & D capabilities and leading position in mainstream markets, have occasionally missed major development opportunities due to misjudgment of technological development trends or neglect of the market potential of new technologies . Against this backdrop, companies that anticipate new technology paradigms and identify and nurture breakthrough technologies can become leaders in new paradigms and industry leaders. At present, the existing technical prediction / prediction methods based on linear thinking are still difficult to solve the technical paradigm shift involving high uncertainty and complexity. The article argues that social networks may draw on the characteristics and evolution paths of paradigm shifts from tools such as data mining and empirical research methods from the perspective of the size, density, and resources of a network, and thus may find ways to foresee the transformation of technological paradigms.