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目的 对洞庭湖区退田还湖地区濠口试点血吸虫病发病进行预测 ,为国家卫生机构合理分配卫生资源提供决策依据。方法 应用GM(1,1)模型对濠口试点血吸虫病患病率建模并进行残差修正 ,进行三年预测。结果 濠口试点GM(1,1)模型平均相对误差为 10 .6 7% ,模型精度为差 ;残差GM(1,1)模型平均相对误差为 4 .73% ,模型精度为优。残差修正预测模型为 ^X(1) (k +1)=1.1896 5 4e0 .2 72 2 2 5k- 0 .31135 1,连续三年预测值分别为 9.12 % ,9.70 %和 10 .4 8%。结论 濠口试点残差GM (1,1)模型预测效果好 ;血吸虫病发病在未来三年内有缓慢上升的趋势 ,应加强血吸虫病防治工作
Objective To predict the incidence of schistosomiasis in Hohhot in the area of returning farmland to lake in Dongting Lake area and provide the basis for decision-making of the rational distribution of health resources by national health agencies. Methods The GM (1,1) model was used to model the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hoi Hau pilot area and the residuals were corrected for three-year prediction. Results The average relative error of the GM (1,1) model was 10.46% and the accuracy of the model was poor. The average relative error of the residual GM (1,1) model was 4.73%. The accuracy of the model was excellent. The prediction model for residual error correction is: (1) (k +1) = 1.1896 5 4e0 .2 72 2 2 5k-0 .31135 1. The prediction values of three consecutive years are 9.12%, 9.70% and 10.48% . Conclusion The prediction of the residual GM (1,1) model of Haokou pilot project is effective. The incidence of schistosomiasis tends to increase slowly in the next three years, and the prevention and control of schistosomiasis should be strengthened