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由中央财经大学证券期货研究所与南方证券公司共同组成的课题组前不久完成了国家自然科学基金项目对我国经济周期、政策周期、股市周期互动关系的研究。其主持人为中央财经大学的贺强教授。该课题通过对股市的牛熊更替、政策的松紧变化及经济增长的波动,分别进行定性和定量分析,抽象出股市周期、政策周期和经济周期的运行特征,然后将重点放在三个周期之间互动关系的研究上,从而对认识现实股市运行的特点提供了一种全新的方法。该课题通过对三周期互动关系的分析和研究,以期实现以下目标: 1.合理预测未来经济走势; 2.合理预测未来政策走势; 3.合理预测中长期股市趋势; 4.为宏观调控者制定政策提供依
The research group composed of the Institute of Futures and the Securities of the Central University of Finance and the South Securities Company recently completed the research on the interactive relationship between the National Natural Science Fund Projects and China’s economic cycle, policy cycle and stock market cycle. The host for the Central University of Finance Professor He Qiang. This subject analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively the changes of the stock market by the bull and bear, the tightening of the policy and the fluctuation of the economic growth respectively, abstracting the operation characteristics of the stock market cycle, the policy cycle and the economic cycle, and then focusing on the three cycles Between the interaction between the study, thus understanding the characteristics of the actual stock market provides a new method. The subject through the analysis and study of the three-cycle interaction, with a view to achieving the following objectives: 1. Reasonable forecast future economic trends; 2. Reasonable forecast future policy trends; 3. Properly predict the medium- and long-term stock market trends; 4. Formulate for the macro-control Policy provided by